The Greatest Opponent Ever Faced by the ruling class: Reality

 "No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot." - Mark Twain

Energy - The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) - the government owned and operated bureau that provides electric power to much of the US Southwest - can't keep the lights on.  They have called for electric utilities that they provide power, to institute rolling blackouts as a cold wave hits the region.    

Let's take a hard look at reality and become informed about this situation.  That way we can pragmatically observe the course we are on, and decide whether a change of course might be wise, before we collide with a looming iceberg.

 Below is a list of coal-fired plants that TVA has recently decommissioned (link), and what (if any) replacement power they have arranged for.  I took screenshots of the page in case the government decides to memory-hole it.  This is only a list of plants that TVA owns.  I haven't the time to track down the decommissioned plants owned by various utility companies in the region.

Below:  John Sevier Steam Plant.  Decommissioned a dirty coal-burner of 704 MW, replaced with a cleaner gas turbine power plant with a capacity of 880 MW, for a gain of 176 MW.

 Below:  Widows Creek.  1800 MW decommissioned, with no mention of any replacement power plant.  Total loss of generation, 1800 MW.

 Below:  Colbert Power Plant.  1000 MW combined output, no mention of replacement power, and total loss of generating capacity is therefore 1000 MW.

 Below:  Allen Fossil Plant.  Decommissioned 741 MW of coal-burning power, and added 1 MW of solar panels (LOL) and a gas turbine power plant of 1100 MW, for a gain of 360 MW.  

Below:  Johnsonville Fossil Plant.  The TVA page says nothing about nameplate capacity of this power plant, but the wikipedia page does.  The wiki page says the output of this power plant was 1500 MW.  So loss of generation is 1500 MW.  That's a big power plant!

Below: Paradise Fossil Plant plant decommissioned a three unit coal plant with a total output of 2379 MW with a gas-turbine fired power plant of 1100 MW, a loss of  1279 MW

 

 To recap what TVA has decommissioned:

• John Sevier: Lost 704 MW of coal power, added 880 gas turbine, for a gain of 176 MW
• Widows Creek: Lost 1800 MW
• Colbert: Lost 1000 MW
• Allen: Lost 741 coal, added 1100 MW gas turbine and one MW of solar (LOL), gained 360 MW
• Johnsonville: Lost 1500 MW
• Paradise:  Lost 2379 MW coal, added 1100 MW gas turbine, Lost 1279 MW

I'll do the math for you.  

Generation added:  3080 MW gas turbine and 1 MW solar (LOL), for a total of 3081 MW. 

Generation retired: 8124 MW of dirty coal burners.

Net loss of generation to the electrical grid (just TVA, mind): 8124 MW - 3081 MW = 5043 MW lost.  

People are shivering without power during rolling blackouts in Kentucky and North Carolina during this cold wave.  They might be wondering whether these decommissioned power plants would have made it possible to avoid losing power at all.  I'd argue if that 5000 MW of generation were still available, rolling blackouts would not be needed.  

If I were in charge of things, I'd have kept these power plants moth-balled and staffed with skeleton crews, in the event they were needed - like they are needed right now.  Coal-fired power plants are too polluting to run continuously, but they could be used as a back-up power source if things become dire.  

People might argue that it's not economically practical to keep a skeleton staff ready to operate a large coal-burner.  I'd argue it's worth the price, and worth not taking a hit to the greater economy due to unnecessary power outages.  It's cheaper than many programs our government already spends money on.

You might notice that cities where elites tend to cluster are not going to experience *rolling* blackouts.  San Francisco, New York City, Seattle and DC will never have issues getting electrical power, unless it's related to a catastrophic natural event.  Nope, it's the people in flyover land who will experience a gradual descent into third-world status.  As usual, this event is man-made - via intentional negligence - due to inadequate electrical generation reserves.

Our leaders, claiming to do whatever it takes to combat global warming, want everyone to drive electric cars.  In what world of reduced generation reserves is this going to work out?  How much fossil fuel will be required to mine and process the minerals required to build out the electric transportation unicorn that these guys are imagining?  I have no idea, but a realistic take should not expect a unicorn to arrive and start pooping free Skittles.