"If thou hast never been a fool, be sure thou wilt never be a wise man." - William Thackeray
"Kremlinology" was the study and analysis of the politics of the old Soviet Union. "Sovietology" was a broader study and analysis of the various countries that composed the Soviet empire.
The fields of Kremlinology and Sovietology were established due to a lack of information coming out of Soviet Bloc countries. Analysts would read Russian and Eastern Bloc state-run newspapers, and try to "read between the lines" in an attempt to see if anything might be inferred about policy, military operations, or politics. Tea leaf reading or palm reading might have been just as useful.
Interestingly, even with Kremlinology, Sovietology, CIA spies, and insiders, nobody within US government spy agencies predicted the rapid fall of the Soviet Union. Pretty weird, eh?
Do you want to know who accurately predicted the fall of the Soviet Union? Among others, a French Sociologist named Emmanuel Todd.
Block-quoting the Wikipedia article:
"Todd attracted attention in 1976 when, at age 25, he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, based on indicators such as increasing infant mortality rates: La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère Soviétique (The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere)."
Rising infant mortality was a predictor for the fall of the USSR... Which brings us today to the US.
We've known about increasing "deaths of despair" among baby-boomer white males since 2015, when the Case-Deaton study was released. Nobody with the jets to correct this situation cares.
We have now entered a new phase, one where children are taking their own lives. A cynical man might say "Everything is going according to plan."
If Emmanuel Todd could predict the collapse of the Soviet Empire based on infant mortality, could we perhaps predict the same thing in a different country using the very same measurement??? Let's look at some trends. I like trends - they are a great way to visualize when something unusual is happening.
US children death by cause. Those upticks at the right might be suicides. I cannot prove that - it's a hunch, based on these children likely experiencing Anomie.
Below: Life expectancy at birth, 2000-2020. That downtrend for all countries is Covid-19 related, but one country stands out from the pack.
Below, another trend I pulled off the internet. I would (again on a hunch) include much of the "poisoning" and possibly some of the "transportation" in the suicide basket.
So now we have kids falling into the 'deaths of despair' that their parents and grandparents have been dealing with. I guess maybe fentanyl can be your friend, when your employer and government no longer are.
So how much longer does this enterprise have before it too collapses in a heap?
3 comments:
Suicide is a subject I try to avoid. Back in 1990 I lost a fiance' to suicide, and was the one who found her body. After all those years it still hurts. Having said that, suicide is a subject needing more attention and on how best to prevent it. Regarding the potential fall here in the US, well, my grandfather told me many times...the next depression will make the last one look like a picnic. An huge understatement in my humble opinion. Unless things start to turn around, we are heading for some unimaginable times.
Off topic story (hope I haven't told it years ago).
Seeing you with the pocket rocket reminds me of my 3rd class midshipman cruise in the early 80s. I was in the QM division. There was a QM2 who was the leading petty officer, a grumpy old chief (is there any other kind), and a couple of sad sack 3rd class. The QM2 had a Kowasaki Ninja. And was really into New Wave and Punk Rock (Red Hot Chili Peppers, Violent Femmes, etc.) His nickname was Sid Vicious. To the extent that everyone just called him Sid (not his first name)...like everyone, even the skipper.
Anyhow, almost ten years later, I'm a JO, done with my first boat (decommed it, so instead of usetaboat, called it the usetabeaboat) and I've got one year left, so I get sent back for another 637. And I see Sid (now a QMC in his khackis) in front of me walking onto the boat.
I yell, "Hey Sid!" He keeps walking. I yell it even louder. He turns and says, are you talking to me, lieutenant? I said, yes...I called your name to say hi. He says Sid is not my name. I said do you have a Ninja and like the Red Hot Chili Peppers? (Yes.) Well...you are Sid Vicious. He gets this far away look and says...that's been a long time.
He didn't remember me. But we talked about the two QM3s (one of which he was surprised had just made chief). I told him I remembered the most important part of doing a Loran fix. (What?) Poking people with the ten point dividers!
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/10-point_divider_-_000649-10_Pt_Divider_01.JPG
LOL!
Post a Comment