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Thursday, October 13, 2022

Eyes on the German Economy

 "A time is coming when men will go mad, and when they see someone who is not mad, they will attack him, saying "You are mad; you are not like us." - Saint Anthony the Great

The time that Saint Anthony warned about has arrived. 

It has been absolutely amazing watching most of Europe starve itself of energy from its primary supplier, Russia.  This is what happens when, in a democracy, the politicians side with someone besides their citizens - in this case, they appear to be doing the bidding of the US deep state.  

I had planned on placing an image of frozen Jack Nicholson from the movie "The Shining" here, but that would be a bit too grotesque.  Instead, you get this image.

It is important to monitor the situation in Germany.  Germany is the industrial and economic anchor of the Eurozone, and its largest economy, so Germany is also a bellwether for the state of the European economy.  

We shall soon see how well German heavy industry functions with just solar and wind inputs.  I'm guessing not very well.  Hydrocarbons are the feed-stock for many industrial processes - plastics, fertilizers, and many other basic chemicals that modern society uses.  Industries like Siemens and BASF are already struggling, and will not be able to compete against other global competitors without the basic materials to manufacture stuff - meaning hydrocarbons.  These companies are also announcing major layoffs.  Arcelor Mittal, a steelmaker based in France, has shuttered two steel mills in Germany.  That's a lot of high quality jobs that have been flushed down the toilet for the foreseeable future.

The nation's largest gas supplier, Uniper, was just nationalized, within a week of nationalizing a different gas supplier.  The German government just purchesed a 20% stake in Lufthansa, the countries' largest airline.  This was probably all done to keep Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank, solvent as these companies were about to become bankrupt and be worth nearly nothing.

The German economy is highly dependent on manufacturing and exports.  Both manufacturing and transportation require large quantities of reliable energy and chemical inputs - stuff that windmills don't provide.  I am not sure how the German economy will avoid collapse at this point.  Right now it may be a zombie - dead and walking about, but not aware that it's game over.  The question now is who collapses first: Germany or Ukraine?

The German Green Party not helpful in this situation, insisting that the remaining nuclear plants be shut down in the midst of a sudden energy crisis - while re-starting moth-balled coal-fired power plants.  How "green" are these people who insist on burning coal to replace nuclear, really?

We are seeing the downstream effects of an energy crisis in real-time, but nobody in the US seems to be paying much attention.  States that insist on a defined timeline to "Go Green", might want to take note of what happens when options are suddenly no longer available.

California's governor has announced that they intend to ban gasoline-powered cars by the year 2035.  They might want to watch before rapidly transitioning to a green economy with non-existent infrastructure.  Then again, their schemes will only affect the plebes, not their own lifestyles.  The wealthy and connected will still certainly be traveling on private jets.  This is not about saving the environment, or they would be walking the walk.  It's just you that has to eat the bugs.  They will continue to dine on imported caviar and filet mignon.

If you are curious about the ongoing deterioration of the German Economy, have a look at the week's news articles about it.  To be sure, all of these articles attempt to frame the bad news in the best possible outlook.   You will see articles claiming that "German Gas Storage is 95% full".  What they don't tell you is that this storage capacity is roughly three weeks' supply. 

News like this is best viewed from a perspective of skepticism and realism, rather than the optimism that they are attempting to impart.  Times are going to be (intentionally) tough, and there is no point sugar-coating that.


 



2 comments:

Marc said...

The governor of Washington State has done the same thing as California, in regards to a timeline/deadline as to when there won't be any gas powered vehicles being sold withing the State. I think Oregon has followed suit, but not 100% sure. The three states pretty much stick together, in a monkey see monkey do. Sadly, it is the people of each state who refuse to pull their heads out and vote someone else in office. Someone more conservative. I look forward to the day when I'll be able to move out of Washington and away from the west coast.

Mark said...

Yeah like I said, only the little people will be deprived of modern conveniences like a 500 mile range on a vehicle. The governors will travel in a convoy of heavily armored Suburbans with 80 gallon gas tanks.