PC Recovering...

So... the reformatting to RAID 0 worked and WinXT installed. So I deleted the RAID 0 configuration in BIOS, set it back to RAID 1, and re-installed windows, using a full format.

Looks good. Everything works, and the annoying beep I was getting from the case speaker has stopped. Have managed to get Zone Alarm, AVG, and Spyware Blaster running with no problems.

The big ordeal (for me) will be getting Steam up and running. I'll be keeping my fingers (and toes) crossed!

First home-built PC

I've been using PCs for a long time... the first one was a Tandy 1000 with an 8088 chip running at 4Mhz. My first upgrade was installing 256K of system memory and a gigantic 20 MB hard drive - which just shows how old I am :)

The machine I just built has the following components, and I've yet to get it working reliably - as I'll explain shortly.

Intel Pentium D 820 at 2.8 Ghz
GA-965P-S3 Gigabyte motherboard
2x1048 800 MHz memory
Two Western Digital 160 MB hard drives
Lite-On 48x (16x) DVD-R
GeForce 7900 PCI-e video card
1.44 Mb floppy - A little retro, but it turns out that I needed it!!!

I set up the hard drives to be RAID 1 (mirror image drives), which the motherboard supports. This was not too easy to accomplish - especially since it was my first shot putting a PC together. I had to change the BIOS (something I'd never done), make a floppy boot disc with CD drivers and RAID drivers (something I'd never done), and tell windows to set up the drives as RAID drives (something else I'd never done). It took a long time to figure all this stuff out, and the order in which it has to be done, since there's no step-by-step instruction that incorporates drivers, BIOS and Windows.

Anyhow, I got it all running to where on start-up it said (note the past tense) that it was confgured RAID1 and Windows ran fine.

However... *sigh* It didn't last long. I tied it onto the internet and Windows XP downloaded somthing like 64 updates. I clicked to install them, and the message said it was OK to continue working while Windows updated itself.

So I went about loading freeware firewall, virus, MP3 player, and Steam. That's about the time the PC locked up. Rebooting gave an error message saying that the PC couldn't locate any storage devices. Joy.

So I tried booting from the CD. Got a blue screen of death saying that system_registry was corrupted. Joy again. Couldn't even format the drives.

So I had to go into BIOS and delete the RAID configuration, and set it up as RAID 0 (striped) which *forced* windows to format the new Hard Drive configuration. And I'm in the process of re-loading windows as I type this. If it runs, I'll probably re-format it for RAID 1.

But to be honest, I'd had higher expectations of reliability from a RAID 1 setup Still learning...

Some cool movies I've watched recently

Mostly Black Comedies. In no particular order:

Four Rooms - an absolute howler. Quentin Tarantino wrote portions and stars in it.
Pulp Fiction - nothing I can say about it that hasn't been said already
Trainspotting - different... very different. And it's wierd seeing Ewan MacGregor (The young Obi-Wan Jedi) playing the role of a debased heroin addict.
Fight Club - Awesome!!! Totally cool. I like the single frame subliminal stuff they stuck in there. Highly under-rated.
The Machinist - Awesome again.
Memento - Didn't care for it much. Very difficult to follow.
The Game - Another outstanding flick. Screws with your mind delightfully.
Grosse Point Blank - Funny, but too sappy.
Fargo - Too funny.
High Fidelity - I like John Cusack, but it just wasn't funny enough.
Reservoir Dogs - Grim, but cool.
Snatch - Awesomely funny. Guy Ritchie kicked butt on this film.
Lock stock and two smoking barrels - Funny, but not as good as snatch. Same director.
Very Bad Things - I loved this one! (and felt guilty for enjoying a grisly movie so much)
Panic Room - A bit predictable. I liked Dwight Yoakam as a villain though.
Bad Santa - ... a tough one to laugh at, but it has its moments :)
Pushing tin - same as above.

Peak Oil - is it real?

I don't pretend to know - but I'm curious enough to consider the possibility and make up my own mind based on the information available.

Economists are funny people. A lot of them seem to believe that the textbook theory of supply and demand translates perfectly into the real world. The reason I mention this is that there seems to be a belief that when crude oil becomes scarce enough, more drilling will occur, increasing the supply - and there's nothing wrong with that, in theory.


The problem is that in practice we are dealing with a finite resource. Ask an economist about the market for dodo bird feathers is doing, and he'll give you a blank look. Adam Smith didn't live in a world of limited resources - he lived in a world of immature industrialization.


With that in mind I found some fascinating charts regarding North Sea oil production at The Oil Drum. This is very thought-provoking stuff! There is a clear double production peak and decline in spite of frenzied exploration and development effort.

The original posting can be found here. I would have re-posted the charts, but the pix wouldn't show up on blogger for some reason :-(

Current reading redux

Twilight in the Desert - A book about 'peak oil' in the major Saudi Arabian fields. (I am just starting it tonight)

Background:

It's my understanding that all oil fields go through a bell-shaped curve of production. Beyond the peak, production falls off, regardless of how much effort and money are spent. The oil doesn't ever really "run out", it just becomes less plentiful. There are still stripper wells in Pennsylvania, even though it's not the producer it once was...

New techniques and technologies are constantly improving the recoverable oil, but this only delays the inevitable. Furthermore no major fields have been discovered in 50 yrs, and the North Atlantic field developed just 10-15 yrs ago is already in serious decline.

The authors point out that oilfield data from the Saudi government is a state secret. Then they mention that the Saudi oilfields that provide 25% of the worlds supplies are over 50 yrs old, and very mature at this point. The question they ask and attempt to answer, is whether those ageing oil fields are peaking or possibly in decline at this point. That's what's in the forward, which I read last night.

The answer will have grave consequences for our energy-dependent civilization, particularly with regard to personal transportation. Cheap gas may not last much longer. I'll blog more about it as I learn and digest the contents. It certainly sounds plausible...

Current reading

Adventures of a Physicist - Luis Alvarez.

Luis Alvarez is a personal hero of mine, and to be frank, I don't admire very many people, and not very much. What I admire about him is his boundless sense of curiousity and his incredible ingenenuity at finding ways to satisfy that curiousity.

Luis Alvarez experimentally confirmed the positive charge nature of cosmic rays (highly accelerated nuclei), electron K-capture decay, and meson-catalyzed fusion. He also invented phased-array radar and the first aircraft ground-control landing system. He performed important work in the Manhattan Project, mainly involving the complex triggering mechanism for the plutonium device.

Wandering outside the realm of physics, In conjunction with his son Walter, Luis Alvarez has seemingly solved the mystery of the dinosaur die-off. Their theory of a cosmic impact being responsible for the K/T extinction is widely accepted today.

A great man with a truly great mind.

Blogger Template Beta

Trying a new look for the blog! I'm going with an orange earth-tone look for now.

An excellent idea, as the content often sucks and the posting frequency is spotty. Hey - it's my blog and I can insult myself if it suits me ;)

Twilight Zone Stock Market

I haven't posted anything on the economy lately. I guess that's because there are so many others who are more eloquent and educated than I am. They also have a better finger on the pulse of the markets and news. I'm a dillettante in investing and economics, while these other guys have day jobs doing this. That's why I don't have very much original to say about the subject.

The links to the right are the ones I trust to be least conflicted about reporting what's really happening in the economy - as opposed to watching CNBC.

Anyhow, I was lying half-asleep the other morning and an odd thought crept into my head about the market and its unusual bouyancy (Dow making new highs) in the face of some very difficult macro conditions (housing meltdown, auto manufacturers collapsing, etc). I say 'odd' because the stock market is not usually something one would expect to be swirling in my cortex at 3:30 AM

Interestingly enough, the bond market and copper futures are unmistakably forecasting a hard landing. Copper being such an excellent leading indicator of economic health that it's known as "Dr. Copper"

Of course CNBC is ignoring the grown-up investors: copper and bonds. Rather than keeping the public informed, they're doing the rah-rah cheer for speculative fools and the general public - which are probably one and the same :)

Anyway, on to my groggy waking-moment theory: What I thought might be helping to keep the market bouyed up is share buybacks. There has been record-breaking share buyback activity taking place by companies with cash on hand - as opposed to using the cash for acquisitions or investment in new equipment (capital expenditures, or "capex"). Not exactly an original idea - here's the original idea:

The reason behind the unusual level of share buybacks as opposed to paying dividends or capex spending: Sarbanes-Oxley. Among the provisions of "Sarbox", as it's called is this (from Wiki): "Significantly longer maximum jail sentences and larger fines for corporate executives who knowingly and willfully misstate financial statements, although maximum sentences are largely irrelevant because judges generally follow the Federal Sentencing Guidelines in setting actual sentences"

My basic waking thought process being that these guys can no longer cook the books in association with Arthur Andersen. The only way they can make the earnings per share look good in this challenging macro environment is to have fewer shares floating around the market. So they buy them (at these high frigging market prices) with their shareholder's (my!) cash.

Then they get great big stock options that they can exercise today, bonuses today, and pay raises today. Meanwhile the company that I've invested in is cash-short as we begin the painful slide into a recession. Anyway, that's my hypothesis, and not being an insider (or even very competent at reading shareholder reports), I have no way of proving it or disproving it.

The ride that was

Here's a shot of me on yesterday's ride - which lasted a little longer than the previous one! Thanks for the pic, Dave :)

The ride that wasn't

Wednesday morning a few of us planned to go for a group ride. I had to be back by 1:00 P.M. to spend some time with my little gal - and so it seemed safe enough, time-wise, to meet the boys for breakfast at 8:00 AM.

By the time everyone showed up for breakfast and ate, it was about 9:30. Then I had to go pick up my bike, and realized I'd left the key for it at home. So that delayed us another half hour. Ugh!

One of us (Daniel) had to drop his kids off at pre-school, so he was left behind (which turned out to be a good thing). The remaining three of us set out to visit a guy who is just starting a motorbike repair/race shop. He's a M/C race instructor at the Buttonwillow track, and also rents one-piece racing leathers. He's also community oriented - trying to get a group of sport-bikers to go with him on the upcomong all-Harley toys for tots ride. If I'm off work, I'm going!

Anyway, we pissed away another 30-45 minutes at his shop. Then I decided to get some fuel... and then we decided to go a different route as we were running short of time. Here's where it got weird:

As we were leaving town for the foothills, we passed a guy on a red bike on the side of the road. I thought he was waving 'hi', and waved back, and kept going. At the next stop, Victor asked if I'd seen the guy trying to wave us down. I said "No, I thought he was just waving. We'd better go back and see if he needs help."

We turned around, and by then he was on the road, going the other direction. Soon enough we caught him and signaled him to pull over. He pulled over and could barely stand up. He took off his helmet and said he'd been in a wreck and had been knocked unconscious. He was favoring his left arm and it looked like his shoulder was broken.

He couldn't remember where he'd crashed, where he was coming from, or where he was going... and he'd just been riding his bike back into heavy traffic! We called Daniel to bring his truck and a ramp. By the time Daniel showed up the guy was coherent enough to provide the phone numbers of some contacts. He got hold of both his kids and his employer. He refused an ambulance, so we loaded his bike and took him home.

And by that time the opportunity for a ride that day had been pretty much lost... but in many ways it seems like destiny that all our delays getting on the road led us to him when we were most needed.

Update: I called the guy who crashed and learned that while he has a torn rotator cuff and can't lift his arm, that nothing is broken. I hope things work out OK for him. Maybe when he heals, we'll do a group ride with him.