Burning Dirt

I worked at a coal-fired power plant for a while.

Career Autobiography part 8 - Geothermal Power

Career Autobiography Part 7 - The Nuclear Research Reactor

Photograph of a TRIGA reactor. A clever design that has the ability to be 'pulsed'.  This reactor can  survive a Chernobyl-type positive reactivity insertion without catastrophic failure.  In fact, a TRIGA reactor can be pulsed many such times.

The place where I used to live

My home for four years. USS BARB. Nuclear-powered fast attack sub. Seen here in Adak, Alaska in 1986.

Vanity Shot!

I've really gotten very fond of this bike. I had some initial ups and downs with it when I first bought it last year, mainly with fuel delivery and electrical connections. The previous owner was an optometrist (a very nice fellow!) but wasn't mechanically inclined. Now that the reliability issues have been resolved, it's been a very pleasant machine to own.

But there's another bike that's been preying on my mind. This one: The Suzuki GSX-R1000.



I was a passenger on a 2003 model - the owner understandably wouldn't let me take it for a spin on my own. That brief ride was a shattering experience. I've never experienced such powerful and prolonged acceleration in my life. It was still pulling like a freight train when he backed off at 150-ish mph. I'm fairly confident that driving it would be far less terrifying than being a passenger perched on the little pad on the back.

It was a huge adrenaline rush, that's for certain. I'm not sure that a little burst of adrenaline is worth ten grand though. I guess I'll stick with the little workhorse commuter bike for now. Someday though... It's amazing when you think about it for a moment: That ten grand will buy a racing machine that will blow the doors off a high-end Porsche or Ferarri.

The center stand and other issues

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I was taught that when you stand your motorbike on the center stand, you are supposed to lift the bike while standing on the lever of the stand...

Today I oiled the chain on the KZ650 right before coming to work, so I put it on the center stand. I struggled to get the bike up - with a full tank it's just over 500 lbs that I was trying to lift up. Anyhow, I bent the center stand, because when I rolled the bike forward off the stand, it rubbed against the tire and didn't return to its normal position. I wedged it past the tire and then it rubbed the chain.

It was time to leave for work so I wedged a little piece of plastic to keep it from rubbing anything - expecting the plastic to fall out at any time (which it immediately did). So I rubbed the chain and the tire all the way to work (~35 miles). Just got a little extra groove in the tire. After getting to work I removed the center stand and chucked it in the dumpster. Maybe I'll just use my floor jack with a piece of soft wood on it next time.

I've been trying to get this bike to run better. It's been surging, both at very low speeds and at high RPM. So I used some fine-grit sandpaper to clean up the ignition points (hahaha, yes it actually has a pair of *points* and condensers), and adjusted the gap. I also advanced the ignition timing *a lot*. I'm of the school that you advance it until it pings, then back off a hair until it no longer pings. Well, I didn't advance it quite *that* far, but I did advance maybe five degrees.

It runs like a different machine now. I can now sometimes get it to do a low wheelie by decelerating and then whacking the throttle open. It still surges (and backfires) though, and I have a valve shim kit on order so that I can adjust the valve clearances. This isn't something that I'm keen on doing, especially as there is the possibility of losing valve timing if I screw it up. Considering the difficulty I have with something as simple as oiling the chain, a valve lash adjustment is likely to end in engine scrap :). We will see. The shim kit should arrive next week.

After stewing about the VA debacle with social security numbers, I decided to visit the Veteran's Affairs website: http://www.va.gov/
Which brought me to this:
http://www1.va.gov/opa/pressrel/pressrelease.cfm?id=1126
I note that there is a link to the "printable version". Hahaha. I have an unprintable version... but then I'm an ex-sailor.

Anyway after reading a bit about Identity theft, I was directed to firstgov.
http://www.firstgov.gov/veteransinfo.shtml

And there they suggest checking with one of the three major credit background check agencies: Trans Union, Experian, or Equifax.

I chose Experian, having previously used them to obtain a credit report. Their site suggests that Veterans get a "Initial Security Alert" (90 days) placed on your credit. This requires lenders to follow certain procedures before extending credit in your name. I had them call my cell phone if an attempt is made to extend credit. Here's the description:
https://www.experian.com/consumer/cac/InvalidateSession.do?code=SECURITYALERT

I highly recommend any veteran reading this page take a few minutes and do this! Just click on the "Initial Security Alert" link and fill in the boxes. You will also get a current credit report, so you can find out who's been checking your credit. Capital One has hit mine dozens of times! Looks like they want me to owe them money. Ain't gonna happen! Sorry, but I only do mortgage debt :)

Isn't that *special*?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060523/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/veterans_disk

So today I learned that my Social Security number and birthdate were taken home by a data analyst for Veteran Affairs - and then stolen! It *does not* make me feel better that he wasn't authorized to do so. It also *does not* make me feel better that regarding the thieves, "It's highly probable that they do not know what they have.".

What if this rash of burglaries in the analyst's neighborhood are merely cover for the real crime: acquisition of 26 million names and social security numbers. Hmmm, I'd feel a whole lot better if the guy was just a mole working for China or Russia inside the Pentagon.

Anyway, I'm pissed enough about it that I spammed my representatives, then I sent a mass e-mail out to all my ex-military pals, asking them to spam their representatives. I don't normally do things like this, but... c'mon! Oh I can't wait for strange bills to start showing up in the mail. *%#$$^#@$%!!!!

Meltdown!

Yesterday was the last day of shift, and the last day for one of my two crew-members. Ed's moving on to a "retirement job" - going to work for the state water district at an aqueduct pumping station. Great retirement benefits and easy work. Sounds nice.

Coincidentally it happened to be an abnormally hot and humid day, with very high electrical demand on the grid. The grid operator had requested full output from our facility, which is never an easy task. The gas turbines (which each have their own generator) exhaust into heat recovery boilers to make steam, which turns a steam turbine and generator.

To make additional power, we have four rows of "duct burners". These are large horizontal natural gas burners that are installed in each boiler. Operating duct burners is not as efficient as burning gas in the gas turbine, but you can get extra steam (and power) without the huge capital cost of installing another gas turbine and boiler. We fire the duct burners fairly frequently - more often when it's hot and the compressor efficiency suffers as the air density drops.

Anyhooo... to reach full load, we have to inject a portion of the steam into the GAS turbine compressor discharge. It rams more mass through the turbine, making it produce more torque. Overall the plant loses efficiency, but the power output goes up - as do the maintenance costs. It's kinda like using nitrous on your car engine. Does wonders for power, but your mileage and longevity suffer. Still, if the economics make sense, we inject steam. The last time we had injected steam was nearly a year ago, last summer

So, we had been dispatched to full power, and an emergency dispatch at that. It took about 45 minutes to properly heat the steam supply lines and get the moisture out. None of the valves wanted to work properly, and some of the instrumentation wasn't functioning, so I ran a couple of things in manual. It was kinda challenging. Emissions also get ugly for a while when you mix steam into the combustion picture. Finally we got everything running and stable, and the plant was churning out every megawatt it was capable of, given the high ambient temperature and humidity.

I left the control room in the hands of my other teammate and went to a meeting to say farewell to Ed. About that time my teammate called me back. We had lost the feedwater pump on Unit 1 boiler! The standby pump had just been sent off to LA for repair... ugh! The High and Intermediate pressure steam drums started losing level, and the gas turbine went into a runback. The runback keeps the gas turbine from putting heat in a dry boiler and melting the tubes down.

We got a re-start on the pump, started to to regain levels in the boiler, and ended the gas turbine runback, when the pump tripped again. We learned that the motor was experiencing high temperatures and the motor protective relay was shutting it down. I requested that one of the maintenance guys go pull the inlet filters off the motor in case they were plugged - they didn't. We got a third start, started filling, and terminated another runback on the gas turbine.

Finally the feedwater pump tripped for the final time, and the protective relay locked us out from starting for an hour. Too many starts will overheat the windings, so you only get three per hour. When it locked out, we were forced to shut down the gas turbine. So right when we were needed most, we lost half the output of the plant. Dammit. Worse, I learned later that the same thing happened here last year (except the standby pump was functional then)

I stayed a little late to help the night shift crew bring the plant back up - after the one hour timer had expired and the filters on the motor had been cleaned :). It wasn't too big of a deal as the boiler was still pretty hot. It was also pretty dry. Took a long time to fill after we finally were able to re-start the feed pump.

After work a few of us had a final beer with Ed at the local brew-pub. I got home afterwards, slumped on the couch, totally drained, and fell asleep right there.

Yesterday's sell-off

An article from a far more sophisticated and articulate market observer than I am.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/gillespie/2006/0511.html

I'm a dilettante (definition 2) in economics, not a master. I learn what I need to survive and for the simple fun of learning and understanding. Nevertheless, we are all fish swimming through the economy, and it's important to understand the nuances of something that so fundamental to our well-being.

Is it happening now?

The markets were ugly all around yesterday, with the exception of commodities.
The dollar and bonds both got pounded, and equities (again with the exception of commodities producers) got walloped. On huge volume.

So...

Is this just a correction in the "what, me worry" market, or does this mark the recognition that the economy isn't all that great? That's the $64,000 question I'm asking myself.

The market gyrations aren't affecting my net worth - increasing it, in fact. I'm positioned for an ugly bear market, which is where I believe things are headed. While there is some gratification at (maybe) being right, I don't take any cheer from the fact that I'm making money as the economy tanks. I'd rather be investing in small scrappy up-and-coming companies with great products. Unfortunately I don't think the US consumer has the cash to buy those products any longer. Joe six is up to his eyeballs in debt. And unfortunately our economy (70%) is dependent on Joe spending every nickel he can lay his hands on.

The economic recovery from the recession of 2002 is the weakest job creation recovery on record, even with skewed statistics. It's been fueled by debt (private and government), and focused in the real estate sector and service sector (finance, recreation, food services), rather than in manufacturing or tech. So it's also a non-productive recovery. Ugly.

This may be the test that Bernanke will have to pass in order to gain credibility as an inflation hawk. Time to see if the man behind the curtains is in fact a *man* (as opposed to a mouse).

I'm already on the sidelines for the most part, with small positions in GLD, SLV, BEARX, GSK and WMB. WMB performance leaves a bit to be desired, but it's <1 a="" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation">stagflation - which I believe is what we are starting to see.

Why do I believe this is what is happening, in spite of the headlines of great employment, great GDP (gross domestic product) numbers, record corporate earnings, and endlessly low core CPI (consumer price index) numbers?

Let's start with employment. April employment was up 138K. Not stellar - economist's concensus was in the 200K range. Worse, the new "business birth/death" adjustment probably accounted for most of the "new" 138K jobs. Without this adjustment, perhaps *no* new jobs were actually created in April. I'm not able to tell how the adjustment skews the results, but I'm confident that it paints a rosier picture than the reality it is supposed to represent.

Let's look at unemployment. In April it was 4.7%, quite low historically. At this low number (think late 1999 early 2000), employees were asking for and getting raises, perks, stock options, and reserved parking places. This time around it doesn't feel like that, does it? Rhetorical question... The 4.7% figure only includes people who have "actively looked for a job in the past 90 Days". So if you've given up looking for a job that you are qualified for (as opposed to a McJob without benefits), you are *not* unemployed. Congratulations for no longer being unemployed!!! Some conjecture that actual unemployment is closer to 9-10% than to 5%.

GDP is another heavily adjusted statistic, one that states the economy is doing better than it really is. If you are interested, in how it's manipulated, please click the link.

The CPI is one of the most highly manipulated and suspect numbers of the bunch. Energy and food are stripped out (allegedly because they are volatile). Housing cost to the consumer is manipulated by using rent equivalent - why is this so when the government likes to crow that home-ownership is at an all-time record high - nearly 70%? Why are we examining the other 30%?

We all intuitively know that inflation is rampaging. The only things going down or staying consistent in price are the items you don't need - discretionary spending. Flat screen TVs, Laptops, DVDs - things you can't eat or heat with - are going down in price. But... if you have to mail a letter, drive to work, eat, use cable, water, or electricity, prices are going up - often in double digits.

Lastly, I want to point to the decline in the dollar vs. a basket of foreign currencies. There is beginning to be a lack of faith in the value of the dollar. Actually this is a rather short term trend... the lack of faith (and the downward trend) goes back further, and the trend is resuming its path downward. This is the reason that gold (and other commodities, from pigs to oil) is going up in 'price'. Because the $US is seen more and more as monopoly (play) money, rather than value. And this is going to be Bernanke's litmus test.

Will he raise rates as high as they need to go to protect the value of the dollar? Because to do so, he will crush the US economy and the debt-laden Joe Sixpack. Mouse or Man? Time will tell!